Tasmanian Election 2025: Sky News Predicts Hung Parliament with Liberals Leading

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Sky News projects a hung parliament in Tasmania’s July 19, 2025, state election, with the Liberal Party, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, set to secure the most seats but falling short of the 18 needed for a majority in the 35-seat House of Assembly. The result, driven by the proportional Hare-Clark system, underscores voter preference for the Liberals while signaling ongoing political instability as Rockliff seeks crossbench support to govern.

The Liberal Party is projected to win 14-15 seats, bolstered by a 3.5% swing to 40% of the primary vote, per the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC). Rockliff, addressing supporters at the Hotel Grand Chancellor, declared, “Tasmanians have given us a clear mandate to lead,” emphasizing his intent to seek a recommission from Governor Barbara Baker (@TheAdvocate). His strong showing in Braddon, with over 19,000 votes, and the election of former federal MP Bridget Archer in Bass, highlight the Liberals’ resilience amid controversies like the $945 million Macquarie Point Stadium.

Labor, under Dean Winter, faced a crushing blow, with their primary vote dropping to a historic low of 26%, down 2.9%, securing only 10 seats, according to Sky News projections. Winter’s Tally Room speech urged collaboration, stating, “Tasmanians want politicians to work together” (@WINNews_Tas), but his role in forcing the snap election via a no-confidence motion drew criticism. Posts on X, like @WorldOfMarkyD’s claim that “Tasmanians rejected a Labor/Greens alliance,” reflect public frustration with Winter’s tactics. His refusal to negotiate with the Greens further weakens Labor’s position.

The Greens retained five seats, while a progressive crossbench—including independents Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland, Peter George, and David O’Byrne—complicates government formation. Political analyst Kevin Bonham noted, “The crossbench’s progressive tilt will challenge the Liberals’ negotiations” (@TheGuardian). With postal votes due by July 29, per the TEC, and preference distribution to follow, Tasmania faces weeks of uncertainty. Rockliff’s Liberal Party, with the most seats, is best positioned to navigate this fractured parliament, but the state’s history of unstable minority governments suggests challenges ahead in delivering stable governance.