Tasmanian Election 2025: Rockliff Nears Victory as Votes Are Tallied

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Liberal Party leader Jeremy Rockliff has all but claimed victory in the Tasmanian state election held on July 19, 2025, with his party projected to secure 14-15 seats in the 35-seat House of Assembly, short of the 18 needed for a majority. Despite a hung parliament, Rockliff’s strong showing positions the Liberals to form a minority government, bolstered by a 3.5% swing in their favor. The ongoing vote count underscores voter confidence in Rockliff’s leadership amidst a challenging political landscape.

Speaking at the Tally Room in Hobart’s Hotel Grand Chancellor, Rockliff declared, “The people of Tasmania have said they have no confidence in the Labor Party to form government,” crediting voters for endorsing his Liberal team (@WINNews_Tas). The election, triggered by a Labor-led no-confidence motion against Rockliff in June, saw the Liberals gain ground, with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) reporting a primary vote of 40%, up from last year. Rockliff’s personal triumph in Braddon, where he polled over 19,000 votes, reflects his enduring popularity, as noted by ABC News. His speech, delivered alongside his family, emphasized a mandate to govern, with plans to seek a recommission from Governor Barbara Baker once counting concludes.

Labor, led by Dean Winter, faced a historic low, with a primary vote of 26%, down 2.9%, marking their worst result ever, per ABC election analyst Casey Briggs. Winter’s decision to force the snap election backfired, with posts on X like @netz_melb labeling it a “wrecker” move that cost Labor dearly. His Tally Room address called for collaboration but offered no concession, leaving Labor’s path to power reliant on a progressive crossbench, including five Greens and independents like Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland.

The Liberals’ edge, despite a hung parliament, hinges on Rockliff’s ability to negotiate with a left-leaning crossbench, many of whom oppose his $945 million Macquarie Point Stadium project. With postal votes due by July 29, per the TEC, and preference distribution to follow, Tasmania faces weeks of uncertainty. Rockliff’s confident claim of victory signals a Liberal-led future, but crossbench deals will determine whether his government can deliver stability.