Tasmanian Election 2025: No Clear Winner, More Uncertainty Looms

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The Tasmanian state election on July 19, 2025, delivered another hung parliament, with the Liberal Party securing the most seats but falling short of the 18 needed for a majority in the 35-seat House of Assembly. This outcome, driven by the proportional Hare-Clark voting system, signals ongoing political uncertainty as Premier Jeremy Rockliff seeks to form a minority government with crossbench support. The result reflects voter frustration and a fragmented political landscape.

The Liberal Party, led by Rockliff, is projected to hold 14 seats, maintaining its position as the largest party, with a primary vote of around 40%, according to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC). Labor, under Dean Winter, secured approximately 10 seats with a primary vote of just under 26%, a decline from previous polls. The Greens, led by Rosalie Woodruff, retained five seats, while independents, including Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland, and Peter George, alongside former Labor MP David O’Byrne, are set to form a significant crossbench. This diverse group, leaning progressive, complicates negotiations for Rockliff, who intends to seek a recommission from Governor Barbara Baker, as he stated in his tally room speech reported by ABC News.

Voter dissatisfaction was evident, with 39% turning away from major parties, driven by issues like the controversial Macquarie Point Stadium and cost-of-living pressures, per a YouGov poll. The election, triggered by a no-confidence motion against Rockliff, saw Labor’s Winter criticized for forcing a snap poll without a clear path to govern. “Tasmanians want politicians to work together,” Winter said in his tally room address, yet his refusal to negotiate with the Greens, as noted by ABC News, limits his options.

The Greens’ Woodruff, speaking at the Hotel Grand Chancellor, called for collaboration, saying, “This conversation needs to be had,” as reported by The Advocate. However, her focus on environmental and social issues may clash with Liberal priorities. With postal vote counting ongoing until July 29, per the TEC, and preference distribution to follow, Tasmania faces weeks of uncertainty. Rockliff’s ability to navigate a volatile crossbench will determine whether stability can be restored or if political chaos persists.