Coalition’s Core Support Plummets to 40-Year Low in Latest Newspoll

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The Liberal-National Coalition’s primary vote has crashed to a 40-year low of 29% in the first Newspoll since the May 2025 election, signaling deep voter discontent following their crushing defeat. With new leader Sussan Ley at the helm, the Coalition faces a daunting rebuild amid internal rifts and a shifting political landscape. This article explores the poll results, Ley’s challenges, and the road ahead for the opposition.

The Newspoll, published by The Australian, shows the Coalition’s primary vote dropping from 31.8% at the election to 29%, the lowest since November 1985. The combined primary vote for the Coalition and the Australian Labor Party (ALP) hit a historic low of 65%, with the Greens steady at 12%, One Nation up to 8%, and independents and minor parties at 15%. Resolve Strategic’s Jim Reed told The Australian, “The Coalition is in real strife,” noting that a primary vote in the 40s is needed to be competitive, yet they’re stuck in the low 30s. The collapse follows the National Party’s split from the Liberals, with leader ascendancy issues, further fracturing the Coalition’s unity.

Sussan Ley, narrowly elected leader over Angus Taylor, faces a fractured party and a skeptical electorate. Her net approval rating sits at minus seven, an improvement from Peter Dutton’s minus 24, though 23% of voters say it’s too early to judge, per the July 14-17 poll of 1,264 voters. Ley has pledged a policy reset, distancing herself from Dutton’s divisive nuclear energy and anti-immigration stances, which alienated key voter groups like women and “teal” electorates. Social media sentiment on X reflects frustration, with some users slamming the party’s shift as pandering to “woke” pressures, while others see it as a chance to rebuild.

The Coalition’s 42 seats in the House of Representatives mark their worst result since 1946, driven by a record 31.5% of votes for independents and minor parties. With voters prioritizing cost-of-living and housing, Ley must unify a divided party and offer compelling policies to regain ground. Can the Coalition reverse this historic slump, or will internal strife and voter distrust cement their decline?