Coalition Support Plummets to 40-Year Low as Voters Turn to One Nation

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The Liberal-National Coalition’s support has plummeted to its lowest in 40 years, with voters abandoning the major parties, but the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has failed to seize the moment, as many shift allegiance to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Recent polls highlight a seismic change in Australia’s political landscape, driven by frustration with establishment politics and economic pressures. This article explores the Coalition’s historic decline, Labor’s missed opportunity, and the rise of One Nation as a growing force.

The Coalition, comprising the Liberal Party and the National Party, has seen its primary vote drop to 31%, a level not seen since the Liberal Party’s founding in 1944, according to a YouGov poll conducted between April 17 and 22, 2025. This collapse reflects deep voter dissatisfaction, particularly with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s leadership, which hit a record-low satisfaction rating of -18%. Policies like public sector cuts and a perceived alignment with divisive, U.S.-style rhetoric have alienated centrists and younger voters. “The Coalition’s campaign missteps have cost them dearly,” said Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov. “Voters are rejecting Dutton’s approach, especially in key suburban seats.”

Meanwhile, the ALP, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has not fully capitalized on this exodus. Despite a two-party preferred lead of 53.5% to 46.5%, Labor’s primary vote only climbed to 33.5%, barely edging out the Coalition. Economic challenges, including a cost-of-living crisis and housing shortages, have left voters skeptical of Labor’s ability to deliver. The government’s cautious approach, often criticized as uninspiring, has failed to ignite enthusiasm, pushing disillusioned voters toward alternatives.

One Nation has emerged as a significant beneficiary, with its primary vote surging to 10.5%, up 3.5% from previous polls. The party’s populist messaging, focusing on immigration and economic sovereignty, resonates with those frustrated by the major parties’ disconnect. “Australians are waking up to the failures of the establishment,” One Nation leader Pauline Hanson said in a recent statement. The party’s gains, particularly in regional areas, signal a broader rejection of traditional politics.

As the Coalition reels and Labor stumbles, One Nation’s rise underscores a volatile electorate hungry for change. The major parties must adapt or risk further erosion in the lead-up to the next election.