Trump’s Tariff Threat on Brazil Opens Door for Australian Beef Surge

Australia’s beef industry could be a major beneficiary of escalating trade tensions between the United States and Brazil, as former U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to slap a 50 per cent tariff on all Brazilian imports starting August 1.

Brazil is the largest supplier of beef to the U.S., but Trump’s proposed tariffs, framed as retaliation against Brazil’s “attacks on free elections” and the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, could abruptly halt the bilateral beef trade. Trump’s letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva described the treatment of Bolsonaro as a “witch-hunt” and an “international disgrace,” stating the tariffs would be waived only if Brazilian companies relocate production to the U.S.

If implemented, the 50 percent tariff would add to an existing 26.4 percent duty levied once Brazil exceeds its 65,000-tonne annual quota, resulting in a total effective tax of 76.4 percent on Brazilian beef.

“That level of taxation is simply unworkable,” said Brett Stuart, a U.S.-based meat analyst at Global AgriTrends. “If Brazil doesn’t find a way out before August 1, beef exports to the U.S. will stop.”

U.S. beef prices are at record highs due to drought-driven herd reductions, now at their lowest levels since the 1950s. Any disruption to Brazil’s supply would intensify U.S. demand for alternate sources. Australia, already exporting beef at record levels in 2025, is well-positioned to fill the gap.

In June, Australia exported 134,593 tonnes of beef, a monthly record. Year-to-date, exports have reached 702,218 tonnes, up 17 percent from the same period in 2024. The U.S. has been the top destination, importing 203,072 tonnes, a 31 percent increase, followed by China, which has taken in 147,391 tonnes, up 39 percent.

“If Brazilian supply gets cut off, American importers will turn aggressively to Australia,” Global AgriTrends analyst Brett Stuart said. “Lean Australian beef is already trading at a discount to U.S. product, but that discount would evaporate quickly under new market pressure.”

China, which has yet to restore export licences for hundreds of U.S. meat processing facilities, has been boosting purchases of Australian beef and could turn increasingly to Brazil as the U.S. market tightens. Meanwhile, the U.S. imported $US42.3 billion ($A64.2 billion) worth of Brazilian goods in 2024, and broader food prices, including coffee and orange juice.

Market analysts expect little immediate change in pricing ahead of the August 1 deadline. However, a formal enforcement of the tariffs could quickly alter the global beef trade landscape, with Australia emerging as a key supplier in a reshuffled import hierarchy.