Tasmanian Election 2025: Poised for Renewed Dysfunction

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Tasmania’s July 19, 2025, state election has delivered another hung parliament, setting the stage for renewed political dysfunction as neither the Liberal Party nor the Labor Party secured the 18 seats needed for a majority in the 35-seat House of Assembly. Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals, with a projected 14-15 seats, aim to form a minority government, but a fragmented crossbench and Labor’s missteps signal ongoing instability for the state.

The Liberal Party, under Rockliff, saw a 3.5% swing in their favor, reaching a 40% primary vote, per the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC). Rockliff’s Tally Room speech in Hobart was resolute: “Tasmanians have sent a clear message they want the Liberal Party to govern,” he said, announcing his intent to seek a recommission from Governor Barbara Baker (@WINNews_Tas). His strong performance, particularly in Braddon with over 19,000 votes, underscores voter trust in his leadership, despite controversies like the $945 million Macquarie Point Stadium, which remains divisive.

Labor, led by Dean Winter, suffered a historic collapse, with their primary vote plummeting to 26%, down 2.9%, marking their lowest-ever result, according to ABC News. Winter’s decision to force the snap election via a no-confidence motion against Rockliff backfired, with voters punishing Labor’s risky gambit. “Labor’s vote has collapsed,” said election analyst Casey Briggs, predicting they may hold only 10 seats. Winter’s Tally Room call for collaboration rang hollow, as his refusal to negotiate with the Greens limits his options, per The Advocate.

The Greens, retaining five seats, and a progressive crossbench—including independents Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland, Peter George, and David O’Byrne—complicate governance. Political analyst Robert Hortle warned that without pragmatic compromise, Tasmania risks “point scoring and gamesmanship” (@TheGuardian). Posts on X, like @netz_melb’s claim that “Tasmanians don’t want a Labor government,” reflect public frustration with Winter’s tactics.

With postal votes due by July 29, per the TEC, and preference distribution to follow, Tasmania faces weeks of uncertainty. Rockliff’s Liberals are best positioned to navigate the crossbench, but the state’s history of unstable minority governments suggests dysfunction may persist, threatening effective governance and voter confidence.