Tasmanian Election 2025: Liberals Secure More Seats Than Labor

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The Tasmanian state election on July 19, 2025, saw the Liberal Party, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, win more seats than the Labor Party in a hung parliament, reinforcing their position as the state’s leading political force. With 14 seats projected against Labor’s 10, the Liberals are poised to form a minority government, navigating a complex crossbench to maintain power. The result highlights voter preference for stability amid economic and social challenges.

Under the Hare-Clark proportional voting system, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) reported the Liberals garnering approximately 39.7% of the primary vote, a 3% increase from 2024, while Labor’s vote dropped to 25.7%, down 3.1%, according to The Poll Bludger. This swing reflects dissatisfaction with Labor leader Dean Winter’s strategy, particularly his no-confidence motion against Rockliff that triggered the snap election. “Tasmanians have sent a clear message,” Rockliff said in his tally room speech, claiming a mandate to govern, as reported by The Guardian. The Liberals’ gains, potentially reaching 15 seats, underscore their resilience despite controversies like the Macquarie Point Stadium.

Labor’s campaign, hampered by its lowest-ever primary vote, struggled to resonate. Winter’s refusal to negotiate with the Greens, as noted by ABC News, limited his options in a progressive-leaning crossbench, which includes five Greens and independents like Kristie Johnston and David O’Byrne. “Labor’s vote has collapsed,” election analyst Casey Briggs observed, predicting they may hold only 10 seats. This outcome weakens Labor’s bargaining power, leaving them sidelined as Rockliff seeks crossbench support.

The Greens, holding steady with five seats, pushed environmental and social agendas, but their influence may be curtailed by Labor’s reluctance to collaborate. Independents, including Craig Garland and Peter George, add complexity, with their progressive leanings potentially clashing with Liberal priorities. Social media sentiment on X echoed the Liberal edge, with @WorldOfMarkyD noting, “Tasmanians clearly want the Liberal Party to continue in government.”

With postal votes due by July 29, per the TEC, and preference distribution to follow, Rockliff’s path to governance hinges on securing confidence and supply from a volatile crossbench. The Liberals’ seat advantage positions them to lead, but Tasmania’s political future remains a delicate balancing act.