Tasmanian Election 2025: Labor Hits Historic Low but Retains Hope

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The Tasmanian state election on July 19, 2025, delivered the Labor Party’s worst-ever primary vote, plummeting to 25.7%, yet they remain in contention to form a minority government with crossbench support. The Liberal Party, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, secured 14-15 seats, short of the 18 needed for a majority in the 35-seat House of Assembly, setting the stage for intense negotiations in a hung parliament.

Labor’s dismal performance, down 3.1% from 2024, marks their lowest primary vote since 1903, per ABC News. The snap election, triggered by Labor leader Dean Winter’s no-confidence motion against Rockliff, backfired, with voters punishing the party for forcing an unwanted midwinter poll. “Labor’s vote has collapsed,” said ABC election analyst Casey Briggs, projecting a maximum of 10 seats. Winter’s Tally Room speech at the Hotel Grand Chancellor in Hobart struck a defiant tone: “We are ready to work collaboratively in the best interests of Tasmanians” (@WINNews_Tas). However, his refusal to negotiate with the Greens, as reported by The Advocate, complicates Labor’s path to power, relying instead on a progressive crossbench including independents Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland, Peter George, and David O’Byrne.

The Liberals, with a 40% primary vote, up 3.5%, capitalized on voter frustration with Labor’s tactics, as evidenced by posts on X like @WorldOfMarkyD’s claim: “Tasmanians clearly want the Liberal Party to continue in government.” Rockliff, addressing supporters, asserted, “The people of Tasmania have said they have no confidence in the Labor Party to form government” (@WINNews_Tas), signaling his intent to seek a recommission from Governor Barbara Baker. The Liberals’ strong showing, particularly in Braddon and Bass, reflects confidence in Rockliff’s leadership.

With postal votes due by July 29, per the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC), and preference distribution ongoing, the final outcome remains uncertain. Labor’s historic low leaves them vulnerable, yet the crossbench’s left-leaning composition offers a slim chance to govern if Winter reconsiders his stance on the Greens. For now, Tasmania faces another fragile minority government, with the Liberals better positioned to navigate the political deadlock.